Inspired by Sminston With
This Bitcoin retirement calculator has been inspired by the conservative retirement methodology developed by Sminston With. His data-driven approach provides ultra-conservative Bitcoin price projections for reliable retirement planning.
The Conservative Approach
This calculator addresses the key question: "How much Bitcoin do I need for a secure retirement?" It works backward from your retirement needs using conservative assumptions to ensure your plan remains viable even in worst-case scenarios.
5th Percentile Power Regression
Rather than using optimistic Bitcoin price predictions, this methodology employs 5th percentile power regression. This means planning for scenarios where Bitcoin performs in the bottom 5% of historical growth patterns—preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.
7% Annual Inflation Adjustment
All calculations include a 7% annual inflation adjustment to maintain purchasing power throughout retirement. This accounts for ongoing fiat currency debasement and ensures your Bitcoin holdings can support your desired lifestyle as living costs increase over time.
Age-Based Requirements
The methodology demonstrates a key insight: the earlier you start accumulating Bitcoin, the less you need for retirement. This is due to Bitcoin's expected appreciation over time, even using conservative projections. A 25-year-old planning to retire at 65 needs significantly less Bitcoin than a 45-year-old with the same retirement goals.
Why Use Conservative Projections?
• Risk Management:Building in safety margins ensures your retirement plan survives market downturns
• Peace of Mind:Conservative estimates provide confidence in your retirement strategy
• Upside Potential:If Bitcoin performs better than 5th percentile, you'll retire even more comfortably
• Data-Driven:Based on statistical analysis rather than hopeful speculation
Ready to calculate your Bitcoin retirement target?
Open Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Calculator →Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only. Conservative projections do not guarantee future performance. Bitcoin remains a highly volatile and speculative asset. Always consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. This tool should be used as part of a diversified retirement strategy.