Retire on
₿itcoin
What I've Learned About Bitcoin Cycles After 8 Years
What I've Learned About Bitcoin Cycles After 8 Years
What I've Learned About Bitcoin Cycles After 8 Years
Real experiences from someone who lived through multiple cycles and why I use conservative numbers for retirement planning
Published: January 2025 • 10 min read
Calculate Your Bitcoin Strategy →
I started buying Bitcoin in late 2016 when it was around $800. Back then, most people thought I was crazy. My family definitely did. But after watching four complete cycles now, I've learned some things about Bitcoin's price patterns that might help you plan for retirement.
This isn't financial advice - I'm just sharing what I've observed and why I built a retirement calculator that uses more conservative numbers than most of the tools out there.
The Cycles I've Lived Through
When you're in the middle of a Bitcoin cycle, it's hard to see the bigger picture. But looking back, the patterns are pretty clear. Here's what I witnessed firsthand:
2016-2018: My First Rodeo
I bought my first Bitcoin at $800 in November 2016. Watched it climb to $20,000 by December 2017. I thought I was a genius. Then I watched it crash to $3,200 in 2018. That was humbling.
Key lesson: The euphoria at the top feels like it will never end. The despair at the bottom feels eternal. Both are temporary.
2020-2021: Learning Patience
This time I was ready. I kept buying during the 2018-2020 bear market when everyone said Bitcoin was dead. When it hit $69,000 in 2021, I actually took some profits. First time I'd ever sold any.
Key lesson: Dollar-cost averaging during bear markets is painful but profitable. Having a plan helps you act rationally when emotions run high.
2023-2024: The ETF Cycle
The 2024 cycle felt different. More institutional money, ETF approvals, less retail mania. Bitcoin hit $100,000+ but the volatility was lower than previous cycles. Still plenty of ups and downs though.
Key lesson: Each cycle is unique, but the basic pattern of halvings driving supply shocks remains consistent. The market is maturing but still cyclical.
The Halving Pattern Is Real
Every four years, Bitcoin's mining reward gets cut in half. It's written into the code. I've now seen three halvings, and each one triggered a major price cycle about 12-18 months later.
The halvings I've experienced:
- July 2016: Reward went from 25 to 12.5 BTC. Price went from $650 to $20,000 by late 2017.
- May 2020: Reward went from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. Price went from $8,500 to $69,000 by late 2021.
- April 2024: Reward went from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Price went from $65,000 to $100,000+ by late 2024.
Each cycle's peak was smaller than the last in percentage terms, but the dollar amounts kept growing. That makes sense - as Bitcoin gets bigger, it takes more money to move the price the same percentage.
Why I Use Conservative Numbers for Retirement Planning
Most Bitcoin retirement calculators out there use power law models or historical average returns. These often show Bitcoin hitting millions of dollars per coin. Maybe that will happen, but I sleep better at night using more conservative assumptions.
Here's my thinking: I'd rather plan for Bitcoin growing at 25% per year and be pleasantly surprised if it does better, than plan for 100% annual growth and be screwed if it doesn't happen.
What I Learned from 2022
The 2022 bear market taught me that even Bitcoin can have bad years. We saw:
- FTX collapse and contagion
- Luna/Terra implosion
- Celsius, Voyager, and other lenders going bankrupt
- Bitcoin dropping from $69k to $15.5k
If you were planning to retire in 2022 based on aggressive Bitcoin projections, you would have been in trouble. Conservative planning means having a buffer for years like this.
My 25% Annual Growth Assumption
I use 25% annual growth in my retirement calculator because:
- It's much higher than stocks (10% historical average) but lower than Bitcoin's historical average
- It accounts for diminishing returns as Bitcoin matures
- It gives you a margin of safety for planning
- If Bitcoin does better, you retire earlier or more comfortably
Some people call this too conservative. Maybe they're right. But I'd rather be conservative and wrong than aggressive and broke in retirement.
What I'd Tell My Younger Self
If I could go back to 2016 and give myself advice, here's what I'd say:
- Start with small amounts: Don't bet the farm. Bitcoin is volatile.
- Dollar-cost average: Buy a little every month rather than trying to time the market.
- Plan for cycles: Expect big ups and downs every 4 years around halving events.
- Use conservative projections: Plan for smaller returns than historical averages.
- Have an exit strategy: Know when you'll take profits or how much you need for retirement.
- Self-custody: Keep your Bitcoin in a hardware wallet, not on exchanges.
The most important thing is to start. I wish I'd started earlier, but the second best time to plant a tree is today.
Want to Run Your Own Numbers?
I built a retirement calculator that uses my conservative 25% annual growth assumption. Plug in your numbers and see what it would take to retire on Bitcoin.
Calculate Your Bitcoin Strategy →
Remember: this is just a planning tool, not financial advice. Your results will vary, and past performance doesn't guarantee future returns.