Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
Based on the work by Sminston With
(𝕏/@sminston_with)Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
Based on the work by Sminston With
(𝕏/@sminston_with)Bitcoin Price History & Projections
Understanding Bitcoin's historical performance and conservative projections for informed retirement planning
Try the Bitcoin Retirement Calculator →Bitcoin's price history reveals distinct patterns and cycles that inform intelligent retirement planning. This analysis examines historical data, identifies key trends, and presents conservative projections based on mathematical models used by financial professionals for retirement planning.
Bitcoin Price History: Key Milestones
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced remarkable growth punctuated by distinct cycles. Understanding these patterns provides context for long-term retirement planning.
| Year | Price Range | Key Events | Market Phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2010 | $0 - $0.08 | Genesis block, first transactions | Experimental |
| 2017-2018 | $800 - $20,000 | Second halving effects, mainstream attention | Second cycle |
| 2023-2024 | $15,500 - $100,000+ | ETF approval, fourth halving | Fourth cycle |
Understanding Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycles
Bitcoin's price movements follow a roughly 4-year pattern tied to its halving events, where mining rewards are cut in half. This creates predictable supply shocks that have historically driven major price appreciation cycles.
Halving Events & Effects
- November 2012: 50 → 25 BTC reward
- July 2016: 25 → 12.5 BTC reward
- May 2020: 12.5 → 6.25 BTC reward
- April 2024: 6.25 → 3.125 BTC reward
- 2028 (projected): 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
Typical Cycle Phases
- Pre-halving: Gradual price appreciation
- Post-halving: Supply shock effects emerge
- Bull market: Major price discovery and peaks
- Bear market: Correction and consolidation
Each cycle's peak has been approximately 5-20x higher than the previous cycle's peak, though with diminishing returns as the market matures.
Conservative Price Projections for Retirement Planning
Our retirement calculator uses Smitty's conservative methodology, which applies a 5th percentile power regression model to historical data. This approach provides prudent projections suitable for retirement planning by using lower-bound estimates rather than optimistic scenarios.
These projections are for planning purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Actual results may vary significantly from any projection.
Power Law vs Conservative Methodology
- 5th percentile power regression (very conservative)
- Based on Bitcoin power law but uses lower bounds
- Accounts for diminishing returns over time
- 7% annual inflation adjustment applied
- Dale Warburton's power law calculator uses median projections
- Power law suggests consistent mathematical growth pattern
- Higher growth expectations than our conservative model
- Popular among Bitcoin retirement calculator apps
Why Conservative Beats Power Law for Retirement
While Bitcoin power law models show impressive historical correlation, our conservative 5th percentile approach provides better retirement security:
- Retirement planning requires reliability over optimistic projections
- Conservative estimates reduce risk of plan failure
- If Bitcoin exceeds projections, you retire earlier or more comfortably
- Better safe than sorry when planning decades ahead
Calculate Your Bitcoin Retirement Needs
Use our conservative projections to determine how much Bitcoin you might need for retirement.
Try the Bitcoin Retirement Calculator →