Can I actually retire on Bitcoin?

Honestly? Maybe. Bitcoin has been incredible for people who held it for years, but let's be real about what that means for retirement planning.

I've seen people do well with Bitcoin over 4+ year periods, but retirement is different. You need money you can count on. That's why I built this calculator using really conservative numbers - the worst 5% of Bitcoin's historical performance. If you can make retirement work with those numbers, you're probably in good shape.

Here's what actually matters:

• Start now, not later (compound growth is everything)
• Buy regularly, not just when you feel like it
• Hold for at least a decade
• Don't put everything in Bitcoin (seriously, don't)
• Plan to take out less than you think you'll need

How much Bitcoin do I actually need?

This totally depends on how you want to live and where you are in life. Use the calculator for your specific situation, but here's what I see working:

For a modest retirement (around $50-75K per year): You might get there with 0.5-1 Bitcoin if you're young and patient.

For a comfortable retirement ($100-200K per year): Probably looking at 2-4 Bitcoin, depending on timing.

For "I never want to worry about money" retirement: 5+ Bitcoin, but honestly, if you have that much, you're probably already there.

These are rough numbers assuming you retire in the 2030s or 2040s and Bitcoin keeps doing what it's been doing (but slower). Your mileage will definitely vary.

What could go wrong with this plan?

Look, Bitcoin isn't a sure thing. Here's what keeps me up at night:

Bitcoin is still crazy volatile. You might need to retire right when it's down 80%. That sucks.

Governments might crack down harder. They probably won't ban it, but they could make it annoying.

Maybe Bitcoin stops growing like it has. As it gets bigger, the explosive gains probably get smaller.

You could lose your Bitcoin. Forget your password, use a sketchy exchange, get hacked - it happens more than people admit.

The solution isn't to avoid Bitcoin, it's to not be stupid about it. Keep some money in boring investments too. Store your Bitcoin properly. Plan like things might not go perfectly.

Which Bitcoin retirement calculator should I use?

There are a bunch out there, and honestly, most are too optimistic for my taste:

This calculator uses the most conservative approach I've found. I'd rather underestimate and be pleasantly surprised.

Unchained's calculator is solid if you're into self-custody (which you should be).

Some others use "power law" predictions that look impressive but feel like hopium to me.

Swan's calculator is good for DCA planning, though a bit rosy on the projections.

I built this one because I wanted something I'd actually trust for my own retirement planning. Conservative beats sorry.

Can you really retire on just one Bitcoin?

This is the question everyone asks, and the answer is... it depends on what "retire" means to you.

If you're 25 now and fine with a simple life somewhere affordable? One Bitcoin might actually work by the time you're 50.

If you're 45 and want to maintain your current lifestyle in an expensive city? Probably not going to cut it.

The math works if you're young, patient, and don't need a lot. One Bitcoin supporting $50-80K per year by 2040? That's not crazy if Bitcoin keeps doing its thing.

But here's the thing - don't plan your whole retirement around owning exactly one Bitcoin. If you can get to one, try to get to two. If you can get to two, maybe shoot for three. There's no magic number where you're suddenly safe forever.

Use the calculator and see what works for your actual situation instead of chasing round numbers.