Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide Methodology - Conservative Price Projections
This calculator is directly based on the Bitcoin retirement methodology shared by Sminston With (𝕏/@sminston_with). The analysis provides a data-driven approach to Bitcoin retirement planning using conservative price projections.
• Uses 5th percentile power regression for conservative Bitcoin price estimates
• Applies 7% annual inflation adjustment to maintain purchasing power
• Provides Bitcoin requirements across different ages and retirement years
• Demonstrates how early Bitcoin accumulation significantly reduces retirement needs
View the original analysis: 𝕏/@sminston_with
Bitcoin Retirement Planning Discussion
This interview with Bitcoin Bram (𝕏/@bramk) provides additional context and discussion around Bitcoin retirement planning strategies. The conversation explores the practical implications of using Bitcoin as a retirement vehicle and complements the quantitative analysis provided by Smitty.
Watch on YouTube: ▶ Bitcoin Bram Interview
Understanding the Conservative Approach
5th Percentile Power Regression
Rather than using optimistic Bitcoin price predictions, this methodology employs 5th percentile power regression. This means we're planning for scenarios where Bitcoin performs in the bottom 5% of historical growth patterns. This conservative approach helps ensure your retirement plan remains viable even if Bitcoin's future growth is significantly lower than its historical average.
7% Inflation Adjustment
All calculations include a 7% annual inflation adjustment to maintain purchasing power throughout retirement. This accounts for the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies and ensures your Bitcoin holdings can support your desired lifestyle as living costs increase over time.
Age-Based Requirements
The methodology demonstrates a key insight: the earlier you start accumulating Bitcoin, the less you need for retirement. This is due to Bitcoin's expected appreciation over time, even using conservative projections. A 25-year-old planning to retire at 65 needs significantly less Bitcoin than a 45-year-old with the same retirement goals.
Risk Management
By using conservative projections, this methodology builds in a safety margin for retirement planning. However, Bitcoin remains a volatile asset, and this calculator should be used as part of a diversified retirement strategy. Regular reassessment and professional financial advice are recommended.